Next Big Future: The Third Tsunami of Computing – Web 2.0 is irrelevant
webmartians
· 1 year ago
Observation: There are few (if any) browser/servers for the World Wide "Wait" er Web...
Want to browse? Use Explorer, Safari, Firefox... Want to serve? Use Apache or IIS...
My guess is that more and more applications will be driven from mobiles, but, because they must be "available," they will continue to reside on fixed systems.
whoisjohngalt
· 1 year ago
Folding@home is a great example of this 'super virtualization' where consumers PS3's spare processing is used to sequence DNA. Distributed computing has some very interesting potential, but the biggest part of it is the network (the internet) that you seem to discount here. Increasingly powerful nodes are hindered by bandwidth, so progress is limited
Tom_Craver
· 1 year ago
I think the waves of information processing revolutions look something like this:
Revolutionary solution. User awareness of potential. User dissatisfaction, frustration. v1.0 solutions. Revolutionary solution.
E.g:
Computer Awareness of value of processing Poor access to processing. Minicomputers, Timesharing. Personal Computing. Awareness of value of access to information Poor sharing of information LANs, proprietary networks. Internet Access - web&services Awareness of ... ?individual place in the infosphere? Frustration with... ?management of one's personal infosphere ??? Google Favorite-links Social-networks OpenID? iPhone? Software-as-service? machine-machine-comm?
XXX???
I think XXX will evolve around mobile information/communication devices (i.e. cellphone), with continuous monitoring / modelling / management of your real world and info contexts - but for *your* benefit, not Big Brother. It'll also have to have a big component of security and identity management.
AlvinWang
· 1 year ago
I am mainly talking about where the money will be and where people will create applications. I also believe that a form of mobile will be the next Tsunami after what I am calling True Cloud computing. That form will be barely recognizable from what we have now. We are at the Osborne level of mobile applications. I believe that anybody that predicts the future of mobile correctly is lucky rather than smart.
The 3rd Tsunami is about how True Clouds have such superior scaling, usability, programmability, that they will inevitably surpass the currently prevalent client/server architecture. As I said App Engine is the first true Cloud Platform. I do not care about how much CPU, disk, or concurrent users that I have. It will scale to cover the planet. It may not win like CPM and Dos turned into Windows.
Folding@home is a current example. The problem is that few problems can wait until your home PC has the cycles to take care of it. Programming an application that way is hard. If I could write an application that could reliably run on a global cloud based on spare cycles, that would be cool. As it is, it is cool but has no impact.
All Comments
Want to browse? Use Explorer, Safari, Firefox...
Want to serve? Use Apache or IIS...
My guess is that more and more applications will be driven from mobiles, but, because they must be "available," they will continue to reside on fixed systems.
Revolutionary solution.
User awareness of potential.
User dissatisfaction, frustration.
v1.0 solutions.
Revolutionary solution.
E.g:
Computer
Awareness of value of processing
Poor access to processing.
Minicomputers, Timesharing.
Personal Computing.
Awareness of value of access to information
Poor sharing of information
LANs, proprietary networks.
Internet Access - web&services
Awareness of ... ?individual place in the infosphere?
Frustration with... ?management of one's personal infosphere ???
Google Favorite-links Social-networks OpenID? iPhone? Software-as-service? machine-machine-comm?
XXX???
I think XXX will evolve around mobile information/communication devices (i.e. cellphone), with continuous monitoring / modelling / management of your real world and info contexts - but for *your* benefit, not Big Brother. It'll also have to have a big component of security and identity management.
The 3rd Tsunami is about how True Clouds have such superior scaling, usability, programmability, that they will inevitably surpass the currently prevalent client/server architecture. As I said App Engine is the first true Cloud Platform. I do not care about how much CPU, disk, or concurrent users that I have. It will scale to cover the planet. It may not win like CPM and Dos turned into Windows.
Folding@home is a current example. The problem is that few problems can wait until your home PC has the cycles to take care of it. Programming an application that way is hard. If I could write an application that could reliably run on a global cloud based on spare cycles, that would be cool. As it is, it is cool but has no impact.