Next Big Future - Latest Comments in Sorry Collapsitarians, Doomers and Dystopians a Full Collapse Will Not Happen

Re: Sorry Collapsitarians, Doomers and Dystopians a Full Collapse Will Not Happen

lolandlolandlol — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 12:05:25 -0000

1.You forget (or have no idea of) EROI, Energy return on investment.
2.You forget (or have no idea of) growing complexity that you so called 'solutions' create.

A.CTL produce more CO2 and have a little EROI same for tarsand and other joke.
B.Biofuel is an energy lost, negative EROI, a great source of CO2, a great cause of soil and water polution and depletion. And will also cause greater food shortage. And the fabulated cellulosic ethanol miracle will cause a depletion and lost of humus that will mineralize our soils (desertification process).
C.Hydrogen have an EROI so negative that nothing more is needed to show the absurdity of it.
D.The geoengineering joke, is very symptomatic of this culture magic thinking.
-You will need a lot of energy to do it.
-You will produce a lot more CO2 that will force you to more geoingineering...
-You will need to divert a lot of resource to do geoingineering
-You will need to switch people from productive task to this avoid collapse task (more complexity)

And all the so call 'solution' are flawed and only put us in a more desperate situation. The only way to avoid collapse is down sizing civilization in a more simple one. No magic thinking or flat earth ideology will prevalover physics laws.

Re: Sorry Collapsitarians, Doomers and Dystopians a Full Collapse Will Not Happen

stussy — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 03:15:54 -0000

Its not any one thing we have to worry about.

We will face many obstacles along the way. We can talk all we want, but we should be prepared, and raise our odds for survival.

Yes we have come very far, but at the same time for the last 50 years we have been stagnant. We have raised our standard of living\laziness, but we have also raised massive populations reliant on a few subsatantial populations that are holding the rest up.

Have you ever been in a large city and witnessed the panic in a disaster? I have and it was only a small one. At the same time it was a large one. August 2003, North East America and South East Canada were without power. The blackout affected an estimated 10 million people in Ontario and 45 million people in eight U.S. states. Katrina is another example but I dont need to reference that for you.

There is a positive for connectivity/globalization, and there is a negative.

Under globalization we share, and a few benefit of the mass population, as in our Democracys.

The problem occurs when under democracy, if we ruin a country we can move to another country.

Under Globalization if we ruin the Earth, its not so easy to move on.

I would say our planet is at near maximum capacity, but our economy requres growth to function.

When each person equals pollution of one form or another, we can no longer afford a larger population.

With increase in population and a decrease of trees, and an increase in of CO2. We will arrive at problems of the earths chemistry. Combine this with increased chemical use, farming, fishing and water use....And human kinds tandancy for war rather than peace.

I am trying in many ways to make myself self reliant.

You can can/jar food
Grow your own
Hunt your own
Use preserves
SELF PRESERVASION

I am not waiting for some new invention

Re: Sorry Collapsitarians, Doomers and Dystopians a Full Collapse Will Not Happen

nextbigfuture — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 12:56:09 -0000

We can leave the finite globe. It is matter of time to develop the technology and enable easy movement between planets and then beyond. This site covers the technologies and plans for achieving this. If things reached a point where it was clearly necessary then the technology we already have could be used to launch material using the nuclear cannon concept developed at this site as a variant of the project Orion pulsed propulsion technology. Then the regular launch systems would only have to launch people. All their supplies could go up with this other system. Five thousand commerical jets move a few hundred people at a time and 100 million people over one year.

Also, in terms of current carrying capacity and energy. In the developed countires, we are producing several times the food that is needed for people to eat and not starve.

Factory mass produced deep burn nuclear can provide the energy for ten times our current usage level for twenty thousand years. It is not so much food but cheap and abundant energy that our civilization needs to grow.

The "petri dish" [carrying capacity of the earth] can be made larger with the technology that we have or are developing. That is even before we make more dishes by getting off of the earth. The solar system can sustain ten thousand times the number of people on the earth. So we are no where near the end. The rationing is only needed if we have some kind of mismanagement/transition issue which is temporary.

Re: Sorry Collapsitarians, Doomers and Dystopians a Full Collapse Will Not Happen

Malthusian_Kerfoffel — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 12:35:35 -0000

Imagine each one of us is a yeast cell in a bottle of sugar-water. The sugar sustaines us and is non-renewable. Our population grows exponentialy and we will soon run out of food. Some of our yeast-leaders foresee the coming collapse and call for switching to alternative foods (there are none) and better use of the food we have. Then comes rationing, starvation and (ultimately) the Final Chapter.

Just before the end, some optimistic yeast say we can think our way out of this dillemma. They are wrong but denouncing good thoughts does nothing to help either. Tell me how this yeast-model differs from humanity living on a finite globe.

Re: Sorry Collapsitarians, Doomers and Dystopians a Full Collapse Will Not Happen

nextbigfuture — Fri, 15 May 2009 18:43:17 -0000

I see no reason why the PUMA could not be used by older people or that it could not be adapted to have car seats for kids.

2010-2011 there is the Think City electric car for about $25,000
http://gas2.org/2009/03/16/...

There is the Reva electric car for India
http://www.revaindia.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wik...

Tata Motors is close to an electric car
http://cleantech.com/news/3...

BYD has China's electric car $22,000
http://online.wsj.com/artic...

Also, sometimes old people will need more help getting around. This is not something that will be new. It is something that happens now.

There is the possibiity of mass production of exoskeletons like the Lockheed HULC or the japanese HAL suit ($4200) to help old people with future mobility.

Re: Sorry Collapsitarians, Doomers and Dystopians a Full Collapse Will Not Happen

M. Simon — Fri, 15 May 2009 17:21:02 -0000

Yeah. That is going to work for old farts or a woman hauling around toddlers and a week's supply of groceries.

Re: Sorry Collapsitarians, Doomers and Dystopians a Full Collapse Will Not Happen

nextbigfuture — Fri, 15 May 2009 10:37:10 -0000

2-4 wheel vehicles can be enclosed. Also, it is possible to wear ski gear where people can go downhill at 40mph at those temperatures. I have personally gone skiing at those temperatures. You can buy the gear in Canada at Mountain Equipment coop (MEC) and other stores. MEC gear is the best. In the US, go to a ski shop or REI. For 2012, there is the Segway/GM PUMA.

http://nextbigfuture.com/20...

Re: Sorry Collapsitarians, Doomers and Dystopians a Full Collapse Will Not Happen

nextbigfuture — Fri, 15 May 2009 10:31:11 -0000

if increased efficiency lets you use more for the same cost then you will use more. But if you are forced to greater efficiency and prices are higher so you do not buy more then overall usage goes down. This was the case when prices for oil went up to $4/gallon. Driving miles went down and oil usage went down.

Re: Sorry Collapsitarians, Doomers and Dystopians a Full Collapse Will Not Happen

M. Simon — Fri, 15 May 2009 03:50:31 -0000

Love to see those electrified cycles going down Michigan Ave. in Chicago on a minus 20 F day with a 40 mph breeze.

That is going to be an easy sell.

Re: Sorry Collapsitarians, Doomers and Dystopians a Full Collapse Will Not Happen

M. Simon — Fri, 15 May 2009 03:45:42 -0000

You should study Jevon's Paradox. Increased efficiency in the use of a resource causes increased resource use.

Jevon was a Brit economist in the 1860s interested in coal.

Of course he did not count on increased efficiency in coal extraction so he did not get everything right. We do see the effect re:CFLs. With increased efficiency in light production more light is desired and the amount of added light more than compensates for the increased efficiency.

Re: Sorry Collapsitarians, Doomers and Dystopians a Full Collapse Will Not Happen

nextbigfuture — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 13:12:31 -0000

Being "owned by China" is not a collapsitarian -in terms of 90% loss of life scenario. Or necessarily any loss of life. It is not desirable to go that far down that road, but clearly unless things change that is the straight line projection. The US is selling itself to China at a few hundred billion per year in "normal" years.

China took back Hong Kong. That would be the more similar scenario. Do whatever you want but do not speak out against the leadership or try to overthrow it. How much more unlike this is the US ? Rotating between democrat party machine and the republican. Buying influence via lobbyist.

The UK faded as the top power. China lost world top power status 500 years ago.

China does not care if other places have democracy or dictatorship. See the deals they are cutting in Africa. Other places are the external territories. You trade and work with them. China is tough enough to manage expansion to govern would involve more headaches and not be more useful.

The US can control how this plays out, but the US would have to get its own financial and political house in order. I will be writing more about this.
http://nextbigfuture.com/20...

http://nextbigfuture.com/se...

The US needs to embrace the next technology and re-organize the economy for maximum growth and development.
http://nextbigfuture.com/20...

Re: Sorry Collapsitarians, Doomers and Dystopians a Full Collapse Will Not Happen

wes_george — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 05:31:59 -0000

You missed my point nextbigfuture:

If the totalitarian Chinese economy is three times the US economy then you can kiss your butt goodbye long before "decades" have past. What would the US deterrent be in 2040? B-52 bombers and 75-year old nukes? "Economic success" means something entirely different to a totalitarian empire than a liberal democracy. The x-girlfriend analogy is apt, but in the hands of mentally ill psycho rather than a nice boy from a good family from Kansas. (which is what your sociological horizon appears to be, no shame it that. You're lucky. Be grateful.)

You did concisely sum up the most dystopian, collapsitarian scenario imaginable short of The Apocalypse: "If china is economically successful and sufficient to develop a superior military then why would they attack what they would already own?" Good point, Toto, but, Hello, I thought you weren't a doomer? Or perhaps more to the point-- why doesn't that totally freak you out?

Surely, you aren't so naive to think it would be OK to be "owned" by China?

Is this what Arnold Toynbee meant when he wrote about great civilizations commit cultural suicide first, long before being conquered from the outside? Tell me I am reading way too much into your comment. That you understand the absolutely unique place the US constitution and Bill of Right occupies in the history of civilization and that you understand the regressive authoritarian Chinese Stalinist statism is only reconcilable with American concepts of liberal democracy as long as the US is the world economic and military world hegemon.

Please rerun your thought experiment with new inputs this time informed by 20th century history and socio-political reality: What does it mean to say China owns America? (Clue: See Tibet for some widely understood effects of being owned by China.)

But let's not get too case specific. A close look at the decades preceding WWI and WWII reveals striking parallels to today. Obviously, history doesn't repeat itself, but it does spiral out fractal patterns which can be empirically identified. Game theory combined with complex system analysis suggest that one can roughly forecast nonlinear system behavior in the presence of similar strange attractor paradigms. That's what this bloody blog is all about, isn't it?

Re: Sorry Collapsitarians, Doomers and Dystopians a Full Collapse Will Not Happen

nextbigfuture — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 13:54:44 -0000

China will not attack the USA even if china's economy is three times the US economy for decades.
The USSR had far less economy but had nuclear bombs and military. The US would still have deterrent.
Plus if China is economically successful and sufficient to develop a superior military then why would they
attack what they would already own. they would have tens of trillions in T-bills and US companies and buildings etc...

China and the USA will not have a war over Taiwan. China wants an undamaged Taiwan to come back. If I want my x-girlfriend back, it does not make sense for me to kill her and shove her in the basement. the economic union of china and Taiwan is well under way. President Ma of taiwan is opening up economic trade and other ties.
Heading toward a trade block arrangement.

If you are winning economically, you do not have to fight. Every nation wants to cozy up with the new sugar daddy.

Re: Sorry Collapsitarians, Doomers and Dystopians a Full Collapse Will Not Happen

nextbigfuture — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 13:48:54 -0000

1. There is still oil and people are driving less.
2. There will be oil and natural gas. See below. So no starvation.
3. Electric bikes. Sitting on electric mopeds. You can use a moped in the winter.
4. Oil field decline is not projected faster than 6%. Some of more pessimistic decline is 4.5% per year.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wik...
There are still oilfields being added. Natural gas production is increasing.
When people are desperate enough they will drill off the coast of california, and in Alaska's protected area
Even if there was export land hoarding of oil and no exports there would still be oil in the USA plus there is
biofuels and synthetic fuels and coal to liquid.
You do not drop below 30% of current levels.
5. Peak oil and global warming can both be handled
6. So what. One sentence from A Clarke.
7. Your numbers are wrong. The navy has nuclear powered ships. The 8 million barrels per day of oil, ethanol, biofuels plus imports from Canada which would still flow are nearly 10 million barrels of oil per day. 50% of current levels. You would divert what is needed to the military if needed to capture other oil supplies.
8. See 7.
9. Not going to happen. Already listed the actions for emergency financial system reboot and handling physical shortages
10. Yes starvation happens sometimes in Africa. Happened in China in the 1950's. there is far more margin for adjustment in the wealthy places.

Re: Sorry Collapsitarians, Doomers and Dystopians a Full Collapse Will Not Happen

uknowbetter — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 02:12:29 -0000

I can has collapse and Obama will give it to me.

Re: Sorry Collapsitarians, Doomers and Dystopians a Full Collapse Will Not Happen

Chuck Pelto — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 12:43:28 -0000

TO: escutcheonblot
RE: It Is Blatantly Apparent....

How brilliantly you've disposed of all my points, Sir, or Madam! -- escutcheonblot

...that English is a secondary, if not tertiary, language for you.

RE: Please Let Me Explain

You seem to disregard the fact that there are no Romans around, preferring to point out that we are still 'civilized'. This despite the obvious fact the Roman civilization no longer exists. You seem to think that because their descendants exist that 'civilization', i.e, the Roman form, did not 'collapse'.

However, in a later comment you seem to recall that the Incan Civilization is no longer with us. At the same time not recognizing that the descendants of the Incas are still with us. That as well as the Aztecs. Let alone the Mayans and Anazasi.

You seem to be rather 'selective' in your recognition.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
P.S. When and where did you graduate from high school? I ask because I'd like to know how far our vaunted American education system has collapsed since I graduated in '69.

Re: Sorry Collapsitarians, Doomers and Dystopians a Full Collapse Will Not Happen

escutcheonblot — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 09:48:30 -0000

How brilliantly you've disposed of all my points, Sir, or Madam!

I bow to your superior wit, knowledge, grammar, and spelling.

What an ornament you must be to your own society

With great affection,

Re: Sorry Collapsitarians, Doomers and Dystopians a Full Collapse Will Not Happen

Chuck Pelto — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 09:35:08 -0000

TO: escutcheonblot
RE: Yeah....Right.....

I haven't confused anything, Chuck.

The question was Civilization, not Roman Civilization. -- escutcheonblot

Tell me when you gradaute from high school....

Regards,

Chuck(le)
P.S. Where's the Incan and Aztec cvilization?

Re: Sorry Collapsitarians, Doomers and Dystopians a Full Collapse Will Not Happen

cipi604 — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 05:39:06 -0000

1.Of course they are driving less, but it was because they got high oil prices=>stagflation=>economy crashed = laws of nature. They are driving less because they can't afford it anymore not because suddenly they decided it's for a noble cause.
2.Agriculture works with oil and natural gas. It doesn't work on electricity. And about rationing... you starve the people, you get a revolution.Starving people don't stay calm, or work anymore.
3.Biking requires FOOD. Food requires agriculture. Agriculture requires oil and natural gas. You can't bike 80km/day (US average). You can't bike in the winter.
4.Oil decline is >> faster than what China or whoever can build in time. Nuclear requires engineers, technicians, fuel and a lot of time to be built. Hydro it's just a drop in the ocean in comparison with the actual imputs offered by hidrocarbons.
5.No oil and gas = no AGW. But who cares about the CO2 when your kids are starving, and you don't have a job.
6.It was a documentary.
7.It makes a lot of sense, because for example USA is importing 60-70% of the oil it needs.The more they fight, the more they consume. No exports=No oil=No food=No transport=No civilization. In just 5 short days you have all the stores empty.
8.With liquid fuels shortages, everything stops. The system goes into a coma in less than 2 weeks. Back then, when USA had the first depression, they were the #1 oil exporter and #1 oil producer. Now they are at the other end of the list. Back then EROEI was 100:1, now it's 15:1. After the war they had a boom because they had a lot of cheap energy and resources, nowadays you have very expensive fuels + shortages of all kinds.
9.Argentina, Germany ... and so on... they got help (resources/food) comming from abroad. This is not the case anymore, especially if you are in a war over them.Plus that you can't eat paper money. In the presence of shortages and lower energy every year, the financial system goes bust in no-time.You can't have credit if you can't grow anymore.
10. Far less is still enough for a small die-off.

I don't need statistics, you wrote the article, you try to convince the people, not me. I was just proving to you... that you have to prepare, and really fast. Don't be impressed, be safe.

Re: Sorry Collapsitarians, Doomers and Dystopians a Full Collapse Will Not Happen

escutcheonblot — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 04:11:40 -0000

I haven't confused anything, Chuck.

The question was Civilization, not Roman Civilization. Civilization, without any pre-qualifiers, is by default the human one. And even Roman Civilization did not disappear completely, as it was perpetuated in the monasteries of the west, and in Byzantium in the east until its fall in 1453, nearly a thousand years after the last Roman emperor in the west.

Don't be so provincial...American or even Western Civilization is not the same as Human Civilization, as much as I treasure the former.

I don't believe I conflated the two issues...eradication of mankind, and the collapse of civilization...they are quite different. Though both would of course involve death in horrifying scale.

Human Civilization has never, to our knowledge, collapsed. Of course if it had, (an 'Atlantis' event?) by definition, we would not know about it.

But otherwise thank you for your helpful lecture on 'difference(s)'.

yours ever,

P.S. The Incas say hi. Eradication sucks.

Re: Sorry Collapsitarians, Doomers and Dystopians a Full Collapse Will Not Happen

Chuck Pelto — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 03:51:51 -0000

TO: wes_george
RE: Excellent!

Great item, your comment. Pretty much 'spot-on'.

You might want to check out my comments (below) vis-a-vis 'Old Testament' aspects.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[The feminist movement collapsed one milli-second after the first impact. -- Niven and Pournelle, Lucifer's Hammer]

Re: Sorry Collapsitarians, Doomers and Dystopians a Full Collapse Will Not Happen

Chuck Pelto — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 03:39:43 -0000

TO: Brett_McS
RE: The 'End'

An interesting analogy, that.

The way I see the collapse of civilizations is pretty much the way you describe death taking a 'weakened body'. For example, the Roman Empire.

Weakened by centuries of corruption and moral lassitude, with malicious 'bacteria' attacking it continually, it is holding on. Then a new element—pneumonia—is added, which is virulent and does the old 'body' in.

At this point, the 'bacteria' come in and feast on what remains of the body. And new bodies are generated which war with each other for dominance. These bodies, once a dominance is established, either singular or collective, thrive in the place of the former body. That is until they become 'sclerotic' themselves and the decline part of the cycle begins once more.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[History repeats itself.]

Re: Sorry Collapsitarians, Doomers and Dystopians a Full Collapse Will Not Happen

Chuck Pelto — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 03:32:47 -0000

TO: escutcheonblot
RE: Please Explain Away....

The collapse of the Roman Empire was not the collapse of civilization. -- escutcheonblot

....the Dark Ages. The Romans are no longer with us, escutcheonblot.

I think you're confusing the collapse of a civilization with the iradication of mankind. There's something of a 'difference'.

Hope that helps.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[I've fallen and I can't get up. -- Roman Empire]

P.S. Also reportedly said by the Mesopotamian, Egyptian, Minoan and a number of other civilizations that are no longer with us.

Re: Sorry Collapsitarians, Doomers and Dystopians a Full Collapse Will Not Happen

wes_george — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 03:28:14 -0000

Gooday from Downunder. I'm not a doomer. Just an old man. Me thinks you all are barking up the wrong tree, mates. Sure, human extinction isn't going to happen short of an asteroid the size of Manhattan colliding with the Earth. And the AGW apocalypse is just the latest secular rerun of the End Times theme. It's only so popular because it is imagined to be a useful sociopolitical trope by a certain section of our polity and media elite. How cunning to blame bad weather on your political opponents!

What is more probable within our lifetimes is a world war, superficially like the last world war but utterly different in important aspects. The Goatguy seems to think we always bounce back from big wars better than before. Not so this time, because the circumstance--population, ecology, resources have finally reached the end of their tethers, that's assuming Moore's Law and technological innovation come to a grinding halt in order to divert that energy into protracted total war. In fact, our civilization is utterly unsustainable without a continued increase in the pace of creative innovation driven by free markets of ideas, goods and services. Total war is the ultimate socio-eoconomic paradigm shift.

Therefore, the next great war will usher in with it a new global dark age of decline in human health, rights, wealth, science, the arts, liberties of all kind, free trade, travel, information exchange and bring on massive ecological damage like nothing we have seen yet. The death toll from disease alone will be on the order of many magnitudes greater than WWII, in part because our populations live dependent on fragile and complex systems. Simply turning off power and denying petrol and medical care to a region like, say, Texas for a year would result in millions dead from disease. This was not the case in 1940. America will not be isolated from the direct effects of war as it was during the 20 th century.

And you Yanks are to be blamed! That's right. No, you're not going to start it through aggression, but by letting your nation become weak and allowing Pax Americana to fall into a state of decline to the point it can be challenged by your totalitarian collectivist friends in Asia and elsewhere. Once you become sufficiently weak, your natural enemies will form coalitions politically, economically and finally militarily against you. It won't last, but that's how it will start. Like a pack of wolves on a great mighty, but old war horse. And then they will come for the rest of us.

In point number 7, you say "The US would not lose" an all out war. Typical American cocksureness. Sure, if it were fought today and on your terms. But what about in 2025 and on the Chinese's terms?

Americans are famous for their geopolitical naivete. The new President is perhaps the most naive ever to occupy the White House. Granted, he's a sharp suit, but unfortunately the last cowboy in office will now certainly not go down as the dumbest American president in history, or even the decade, when the Great Yankee sagas are composed on sheepskin by firelight in 2050 in a hidden valley somewhere high in Utah (or Maine) beyond the range of Chinese fighter bombers.

Historians of the next great war will mark the lead up to war to the great national debt and subsequent destruction of the US dollar as the global currency. Obama will give America EU-style socialism at the price of destroying the nation's global economic hegemony. Once the dollar is no longer the global currency, the massive debt, up to 70 percent of the US GNP, will be owed in a coalition currency largely controlled by China, if not officially, then by sheer economic muscle.

US military power is only sustainable because the US dollar is the world's currency. No strong dollar, no global super power. No Pax Americana and the Chinese will attempt the coup de grace to impose Pax Orientalis. Now I understand that some of Obama's old mates like William Ayers would welcome Chinese totalitarian rule in America, but I believe that even in a weakened state the American people will reject foreign rule even if it means war. Perhaps more insidious is the American naive belief in the genuine goodness of all of humanity. We can work with the Iranian, Hamas, the Taliban, the Russian and China, be friends, unclench our fists. The problem lies in the clash of civilizations. The Chinese, a 6,000 year old civilization are no more likely to adopt the American barbarisms of constitutional rights and liberty for all, we the people hokum than the Taliban. Nor do Americans understand the huge sense of entitlement the Chinese feel as the center of the earth to form Empire. China, by the way, is already a vast empire of different nations and races held together only by brutal totalitarian force. They know they're destined to rule the world.

As one pundit put it recently: imagine if the roles were reversed in the middle east. Imagine if Israel was a weak jewish enclave in Gaza and Hamas was as mighty as the Israeli army is today. Wonder how long that Jewish enclave would last? Now imagine that the US was as weak as China is today (or was) and that China is as strong as the US. Imagine if China was the global super power and the US navy pinned against the California coast line. The world would be a different place altogether. And unless the US eventually totally submitted, war would be the results. Note that the US has treaty obligations that could trip a Sino-US war in half a dozen hot spots across the Pacific and Indian ocean whenever China chooses. So the war will begin when and where your enemy choses, not on your terms.

It will start as a Chinese led coalition totalitarian empire with Russia and others, but that will break down pretty quickly. Invasions will occur. Nukes will be exchanged. But not all at once like the old cold war scenario. Mutually assured destruction will turn out to be as much a myth as nuclear winter as long as they are used tactically against states that don't have nuke strike back capacity. The few big nuclear states will hold their fire on each other. Nuclear states will pass along nukes to non-nuke allies for one off tactical use here and there. The US will be forced to use tactical nukes too, because your other forces will be too weak to hold the balance.

Pick your favorite hot spot to set the war off. Maybe Iran will try to nuke Israel. China take back Taiwan? Who knows? It could be a minor incident we can't possibly imagine today. We can be sure that Western appeasement due to weakness will be manipulated in a game of Real Politik as it was before WWII to the advantage of the aggressors. But I digress. The real cause of the war is US economic policy created in March 2009 which marks the beginning of the end for American global power.

It will be a slow and long war like Orwell's 1984 war, almost endless. It will wreck democracy, certainly in places like Mexico, Indonesia, India and Turkey first, then the EU, the US will be the last to succumb to a national security state run from the Pentagon. The US Allies won't have the industrial capacity reserve advantaged they had over the Axis in 1939. The population and resource balance will favor Asia and its middle eastern allies. The aggressors will have far more soldiers to toss like chafe into the wind. Demographics will be powerful tide against the West. Moreover, endless conflict and high death tolls will suit the totalitarian regimes and fuel their economies, while being highly corrosive to our own culture of liberty and abundance.

Texas and Mexifornia will pass back and forth between armies at first then warlords in the later dark ages following. See the Afgan-Paki frontier for a taste of things to come. San Francisco or some other US target will almost certainly be nuked at some point, but by an NGO proxy, so retaliation in kind will be most difficult. Australia will become a mineral resource colony of China and the Australian people slave labour. The great victory of the Chinese axis will come not because they will ever be able to unconditionally defeat North America but because America will have to adopt some version of the totalitarian military statism to survive in a state of constant war. Perhaps once the last spark liberty is extinguished in America then it will be possible to negotiate unclenched fists with totalitarian regimes, after all you'll no longer pose a cultural threat to them.

So, I hope you'll sleep well tonight knowing that you've cleverly shown the world is utterly safe from an Old Testament-style apocalypse. mates. Good on ya. Maybe tomorrow you blokes will wake up and smell the coffee and make a post about how America can save its economy and the US dollar and therefore Pax Americana and ultimately the whole bloody rest of the free world from a very nasty future. Because America's continued strength is all that stands between everything your Founding Fathers' cherished and a second Dark Age.

Re: Sorry Collapsitarians, Doomers and Dystopians a Full Collapse Will Not Happen

escutcheonblot — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 03:06:08 -0000

I agree that civilization will probably not collapse. Ours never has, has it? The collapse of the Roman Empire was not the collapse of civilization. It was sustained in the Byzantine Empire, Persia, India, and China...not to mention the monasteries of the Catholic Church, especially in Ireland.

But hundreds of millions probably died as a result of that cataclysm, and the number would be at least ten times as great for a comparable collapse of say, the US, Europe, or China.

The Amish will endure whatever...the new Irish monks of the 22nd century.