DISQUS

enantiomer2000 · 1 year ago

what do you think about the prospect of McCain being another war monger? I have heard whispers of an israeli-iranian war that we could potentially get dragged into...

nextbigfuture · 1 year ago

This site has discussed the possibility of a Israel-Iran war and thinks that one is highly likely. This war will likely not be a choice for McCain or Obama to make initially. Israel would likely hit Iran before the new president comes to office or the US will not have a veto on the war. The dragging into any war would be by Iranian attacks on the US and the US overseas after Israel's air campaign to setback the Iranian nuclear program which they view as a clear risk to the survival of Israel. A US response option of staying out will probably not be on the table.

Old Iran war article from this site

Speculation on war with Iran from 2007 on this site

And earlier in 2007

Fact checking on McCain's position on the Iraq War

McCain on earmarks factcheck

The record seems to indicate that Palin will not push for Creationism in education regardless of whatever personal belief she has

I do not see where there is evidence for saying that McCain is a warmonger. He was public first on the surge but that worked out. He voted for the war initially but so did Edwards, Hillary and most everyone else. He was critical of the execution of the Iraq war.

Bryan "bytehead" Price · 1 year ago

I predict not McCain.

I think too many voters (Republicans included) have grown excruciatingly tired of the current administration, with approval ratings to prove it. There is a lot of spin about being a maverick and how "different" McCain is from Bush, Jr., but I think the American voters are going to reject another 4 years of the same ol', same ol'. I also suspect that Bob Barr is going to hurt McCain more than he's going to hurt Obama.

I find it likely that Israel will have already struck Iran by the time we are voting. If Obama wins, and they haven't struck, I expect a strike very shortly thereafter. The current administration will be the deciding factor on whether it escalates or not, and I would be betting that it escalates.

nextbigfuture · 1 year ago

Bob Barr (2.4%) is polling behind Nader (3.0%)

We will see who is right in 57 days

DrBalthar · 1 year ago

A strike on Iran will be a disaster for the world economy and especially the US (except for the arms industry). It will go Oil prices into terriorities not seen before. As the world (including Israel) is highly dependent on a undistrubted incoming stream of black gold. So the war will be over pretty soon as soon as the strategic reserves run out.

madoc62 · 1 year ago

Folks,

If you take a close look at the numbers you'll find that the McCain / Palin combo is actually ahead of the Obama / Biden pairing. Not by a huge amount but by a significant amount. This is particularly so when you take into account how high Obama was riding - right up until Palin got named - and how this year was supposed to be "owned" by the Democrats.

Since Palin got named, there's been huge swings in the polling numbers toward McCain and away from Obama. Much of this has not been well covered by the media and some of the polling services have done their best to recast their numbers to water down this effect. But, among voting women in particular, Palin is proving a deadly draw to Democrat plans.

Historically, if a Democrat wants to win in November then he'd have to be _much_ further ahead of his GOP opponent than Obama is to McCain. Much further ahead. Look for this trend to get worse over the next six weeks.

As to a war with Iran, perhaps. Perhaps not. I think that if McCain does win then the Iranians might try something drastic and try it sooner than later. Ere that take place, then I would agree about an Israeli strike coming down first and well ahead of any US strike.

The fallout from this - perhaps literally - would play out differently than DrBalthar imagines. There would be quite the spike on oil futures as things got rolling. However, I really can't see any scenario in which either the US or Israel takes military action against Iran which winds up with the Iranians retaining sufficient military capacity to threaten oil shipments through the Gulf. More likely than not, the military action would have to expand in scope from a simple "surgical strike" that knocks out Iran's nuclear capacity to one which also eliminates their conventional capacity all along their Persian Gulf and Hormuz coasts. Couple that with what would be left of Iran also being in dire need of continued income to rebuild, and the flow of oil through the Gulf would continue unabated.

In fact, with Iran neutralized, there'd be far less speculative pressure on the oil market and we might see prices come down significantly.

And that would be a good thing for all.

Madoc