What a take on Canadian politics. Unfortunately things are not as simple as you wish. Let me give certain high points.
1. Because of party popularity and regional difference it takes around 38% of the vote to form a majority government 2. Harper has never had a majority government. This one is the closest he has come. 3. When he called the last election early in the fall, the conservatives were flirting with 40% of the vote. That changed during the last week of campaigning.
Much of that was probably caused by the value of the Canadian dollar. After several years at around 87 cents U.S., the Loonie suddenly hit the parity range. By spring Canada was in a mini-boom coast to coast. That is when the Canadian dollar started to slide, and by the election date we were going into a recession. The recession can only deepen because the dollar continues to slide, having dropped over 3 cents in a single trading session. Since everything here is priced relative to the American dollar we are in runaway inflation. This drop in buying power will only increase because by January our dollar will be worth 75 cents U.S. - it is 78 cents today.
Today the Governor General just allowed Harper to postpone the legislative sitting until January. This manipulation of the laws and customs is not winning favor with his party supporters. This follows his breaking his own Law prohibiting arbitrarily calling elections, with fixed election dates set. We do not need to go to the polls if Harper is defeated, since the opposition parties have a majority if united, and they also represent the majority of Canadian. This is the first time in our history that all of the opposition parties have joined together to offer an alternative government.
If an election is called in February I set the odds of Harper and the Conservatives losing seats at 80-20, and it would be even higher if the Liberal party had leadership. If Harper does not lose seats it would be the first time in Canadian history that the ruling party was not defeated when a recession starts. Furthermore, the Conservatives have had majorities three times in the last century, and the first and last were utter disasters
nextbigfuture
· 1 year ago
There were various mis-steps in the last campaign by the Conservatives. The arts flap in Quebec and the US economic crisis. the C$ has not been helped by the coalition. The C$ fell because of the massive drop in commodity prices and the general strengthening of the US$ against most every currency except the Yen. (Strengthened against the Euro and pound.)
lostdoggie
· 1 year ago
The conservatives had campaign mis-teps, major ones, and several were financial in nature. That is part of Harper's baggage. The fact that the US buck is sky-high is creating global problems, but most Canadians do not follow global currencies. Since most products are based on US values under NAFTA we get killed up here. Recent Government statistics showing that inflation are zero are provoking laughs of pain. Some of the price problems may ease soon.
The survey which you added since my post indicate figures which are along lines I would have predicted. They left out one question of interest because they are not really part of the picture they want to present, and that is the percentage of voters who trust Scary Stephen. I am a former "Progressive Conservative" and a Calgarian who obviously knows lots of the new "Conservatives". Many of them held their nose in the polling stations. There are knives out in the Conservatives already. The reason that the Conservatives ran the country as a naked minority government is the fact no other party was prepared to partner with them.
Dion's poor rating is partly due to his being a Quebecois, and also partly due to the strong and long-standing Conservative bias of the media. Worse yet for Canada and the Liberals, he is superior to anybody that they have waiting in the wings. Fortunately, some of our best governing since 1950 has been by coalition governments. This may be good for the future because more and more Canadians are realizing we may never again have a majority government. A two party system cannot work in a complex, modern and changing society-there are too many options to decide.
KarlSchroeder
· 1 year ago
Parliamentary systems don't quite work as you describe. Firstly, a minority government, such as the Conservatives have now, is already a form of coalition. The government can only function with the consent of the other parties, unlike in a majority. Secondly, formation of a coalition government isn't a "coup", it's a normal activity in parliamentary democracies. Most such democracies around the world have frequent coalition governments, some to the point of paralysis (such as Italy and Israel). Coalition governments are by design a way for rule by the majority to be guaranteed. We like this feature of parliamentary democracy; we like parliamentary democracy very much, particularly knowing the alternatives.
Also, the Governor General cannot force an election, nor can the conservatives. If the coalition decides to bring down the sitting government, it can do it and nobody can stop it.
nextbigfuture
· 1 year ago
I still have Canadian citizenship and I was born in Canada and lived, studied and worked there for 30 years. I know it is not a "coup" [used the term for a better title - mocking the stereotype of canadian passivity and being relative boring], but it is as noted by lostdoggie - the first time opposition parties have joined together to offer an alternative government. Thus it would be a new precedent for Canada. I do not think the governor general will set new precedent because in my lifetime (43 years) Canada's governor general has not broken new ground. Technically the GG could, but I do not think the GG would. Plus the biggest hurdle for the coalition now is holding it together for two months in this game of political chicken. I do not believe that the Conservatives would necessarily win a majority because of their own popularity but because of the unpopularity and incompetence of the Liberals, NDP and PQ. I think the West and Ontario would firm up against the coalition and for the Conservatives.
The Governor general can call an election if requested by the PM. The only issue is whether about 4 months is too fast. It has been stated that 6+ months is OK. I am betting that the GG sided with prorogue /suspension and will also side with a fast (but 4 months and not two months) election call.
painlord2k
· 1 year ago
When you write about a coalition formed from "all opposition parties" I immediately think about the left wing coalitions of Italy. They were very good at win elections with very large coalitions, but the resulting governments were very weak and more interested in distributing pork than governing and making hard choices. Then the other side (Berlusconi's House of Liberty) won big time.
So, I suppose the leftists can win, but I suppose they can not govern. They can hold power doing nothing (they are very skilled at this), but they will reap the fruits of their incompetence.
All Comments
1. Because of party popularity and regional difference it takes around 38% of the vote to form a majority government
2. Harper has never had a majority government. This one is the closest he has come.
3. When he called the last election early in the fall, the conservatives were flirting with 40% of the vote. That changed during the last week of campaigning.
Much of that was probably caused by the value of the Canadian dollar. After several years at around 87 cents U.S., the Loonie suddenly hit the parity range. By spring Canada was in a mini-boom coast to coast. That is when the Canadian dollar started to slide, and by the election date we were going into a recession. The recession can only deepen because the dollar continues to slide, having dropped over 3 cents in a single trading session. Since everything here is priced relative to the American dollar we are in runaway inflation. This drop in buying power will only increase because by January our dollar will be worth 75 cents U.S. - it is 78 cents today.
Today the Governor General just allowed Harper to postpone the legislative sitting until January. This manipulation of the laws and customs is not winning favor with his party supporters. This follows his breaking his own Law prohibiting arbitrarily calling elections, with fixed election dates set. We do not need to go to the polls if Harper is defeated, since the opposition parties have a majority if united, and they also represent the majority of Canadian. This is the first time in our history that all of the opposition parties have joined together to offer an alternative government.
If an election is called in February I set the odds of Harper and the Conservatives losing seats at 80-20, and it would be even higher if the Liberal party had leadership. If Harper does not lose seats it would be the first time in Canadian history that the ruling party was not defeated when a recession starts. Furthermore, the Conservatives have had majorities three times in the last century, and the first and last were utter disasters
The survey which you added since my post indicate figures which are along lines I would have predicted. They left out one question of interest because they are not really part of the picture they want to present, and that is the percentage of voters who trust Scary Stephen. I am a former "Progressive Conservative" and a Calgarian who obviously knows lots of the new "Conservatives". Many of them held their nose in the polling stations. There are knives out in the Conservatives already. The reason that the Conservatives ran the country as a naked minority government is the fact no other party was prepared to partner with them.
Dion's poor rating is partly due to his being a Quebecois, and also partly due to the strong and long-standing Conservative bias of the media. Worse yet for Canada and the Liberals, he is superior to anybody that they have waiting in the wings. Fortunately, some of our best governing since 1950 has been by coalition governments. This may be good for the future because more and more Canadians are realizing we may never again have a majority government. A two party system cannot work in a complex, modern and changing society-there are too many options to decide.
Also, the Governor General cannot force an election, nor can the conservatives. If the coalition decides to bring down the sitting government, it can do it and nobody can stop it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Canadian_parl...
The Governor general can call an election if requested by the PM. The only issue is whether about 4 months is too fast. It has been stated that 6+ months is OK. I am betting that the GG sided with prorogue /suspension and will also side with a fast (but 4 months and not two months) election call.
They were very good at win elections with very large coalitions, but the resulting governments were very weak and more interested in distributing pork than governing and making hard choices. Then the other side (Berlusconi's House of Liberty) won big time.
So, I suppose the leftists can win, but I suppose they can not govern. They can hold power doing nothing (they are very skilled at this), but they will reap the fruits of their incompetence.
http://smartpei.typepad.com/robert_patersons_we...