DISQUS

Next Big Future: Oil Supply, Demand and Price

  • takchess · 11 months ago
    What is meant by "producing barrel"?

    also on other posts I have a very basic question about D-Wave . What specifically about the technology makes it "Quantum"Computing.? Low tempature, Superconductivity?

    I have been following and enjoying your blog for the past few months. Thanks.
  • nextbigfuture · 11 months ago
    Producing barrel per day means that you get one barrel per day out of the well every day.
    365 barrels per year until the well runs out.

    D-wave has recently been running tests which show that they have some quantum entanglement.
    Past experimental proof of being consistent with Landau Zener Transitions

    working to prove the quantumness of the 128 qubit system with better performance than classical and some other tests


    Dwave also hopes to address performance comparisons to classical computers:

    We’ve been working on a way to quantify the performance of adiabatic quantum algorithms on this particular 128-qubit chip based on using a quantum monte carlo technique to extract the minimum gap and matrix element between ground & first excited states, pretty much identical to the work described in http://arxiv.org/abs/0803.3971 . We are very close to being able to compare the projected performance of this chip & associated systems apples to apples with classical approaches to solving problems of interest.

    Here is a page where Dwave publishes their technical papers
  • GoatGuy · 11 months ago
    The idea of using nuclear thermal (and obviously derivative electrical) power is an interesting twist on power conversion. The classically cited "problem" with bitumenous and high molecular weight aliphatic crude oil utilization is of course that it takes nearly as much energy to produce a unit of commercially useful product mix as is contained IN the in-situ source material itself!

    Which is kind of defeating ... to require a barrel of oil to produce a barrel of oil.

    But, nuclear power isn't a liquid, nor is it easily convertable to a liquid form ... except by the path of using its energy to replace the energy-consuming components of the bitumenous stream processing facility. If one conceptually just riffs on the theme, I could see the huge earthmoving shovels and shuttling systems converted to electric power. They don't MOVE very far strictly speaking, so having long, heavily armored and protected 'industrial extension cords' (maybe tens of miles long) ... isn't really all that infeasible. No need to invoke implausible battery or fuel cell technologies, as beguiling as they might be.

    Nope. A small (say "1000 megawatt, thermal") nuclear reactor, necessarily onsite. Cogeneration to pick off 25% of the thermal energy as electrical. 250 megawatts is a lot of power, and certainly enough to run a lot of heavy mining and earth moving machinery. 25% wasted heat (unutilized), and 50% to the anoxic hydrothermal cracking processes to lighten and sweeten the feedstock. In the end, maybe the 'factory' would produce a low viscosity stream of synthetic crude that would be valuable feedstock for conventional (and far more sophisticated) refineries.

    Kind of a way to convert nuclear to liquid fuel! I rather like it. The plant wouldn't need much imported fuel - there probably would be plenty of low-yield diesel and other fuels from a bit of the product stream.

    Not being a petrochemical engineer or researcher, what seems as open are the possibilities of using the very heaviest tar sands and not just bitumenous oils, but actual bitumen along the lines of the vast deposits in Canada, Montana and Wyoming as feedstock. You know, materials that don't begin to become pourable until they're far hotter than boiling water.

    GoatGuy
  • nextbigfuture · 11 months ago
    there are hybrid and electric large trucks and mining equipment.

    caterpillar hybrid bulldozer
    http://www.cat.com/cda/components/fullArticle?m...

    Electric truck able to move 30 tons and has 30-60 mile range
    http://www.autobloggreen.com/2008/09/23/balqon-...

    Electric drive mining trucks
    http://www.pjstar.com/business/x1662899539/Cat-...
  • GoatGuy · 11 months ago
    Excellent!

    See the comment I made about the Futurists Comments ... especially regarding
    the development of an industry-standardized set of robotically replaceable
    battery packs (like WAY oversized versions of my Makita portable drill), but
    for vehicles.

    It is this kind of thing that would give the "electric drive train" a huge
    boost.

    GoatGuy