http://nextbigfuture.disqus.com/enSat, 06 Dec 2008 15:42:14 -0000http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/12/loss-of-light-prevented-in.html#comment-4226921<p>I will need to update those predictions, but you are correct that a scenario with early AGI is a black swan which I do currently do not see in a predictable way. The coverage I have given on the brain emulation roadmap and brute forcing our way to AGI is a clearer 20-60 year path. Automating more human tasks with robotic driving will be an interesting and impactful series of developments.</p>nextbigfutureSat, 06 Dec 2008 15:42:14 -0000http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/12/loss-of-light-prevented-in.html#comment-4225610<p>What a conservative bet. In the event of a hard-takeoff there there is no way that we can humanly imagine the extend of technological progress. Even if no AGI comes about I would still say that is a very conservative bet.</p><p>Brian, I was looking at your predictions page and noticed that you don't predict much on AGI. To many variables for a comfortable prediction?</p>enantiomer2000Sat, 06 Dec 2008 13:33:55 -0000http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/12/loss-of-light-prevented-in.html#comment-4207820<p>Wow! This is huge!</p><p>But what other obstacles are possible? Cost perhaps?</p><p>I had a bet with my sister that by 2054 we would have full knowledge of protein structure. Maybe I'll win that bet!</p>eternalcarrotFri, 05 Dec 2008 14:05:40 -0000