But what other obstacles are possible? Cost perhaps?
I had a bet with my sister that by 2054 we would have full knowledge of protein structure. Maybe I'll win that bet!
enantiomer2000
· 1 year ago
What a conservative bet. In the event of a hard-takeoff there there is no way that we can humanly imagine the extend of technological progress. Even if no AGI comes about I would still say that is a very conservative bet.
Brian, I was looking at your predictions page and noticed that you don't predict much on AGI. To many variables for a comfortable prediction?
nextbigfuture
· 1 year ago
I will need to update those predictions, but you are correct that a scenario with early AGI is a black swan which I do currently do not see in a predictable way. The coverage I have given on the brain emulation roadmap and brute forcing our way to AGI is a clearer 20-60 year path. Automating more human tasks with robotic driving will be an interesting and impactful series of developments.
All Comments
But what other obstacles are possible? Cost perhaps?
I had a bet with my sister that by 2054 we would have full knowledge of protein structure. Maybe I'll win that bet!
Brian, I was looking at your predictions page and noticed that you don't predict much on AGI. To many variables for a comfortable prediction?