Next Big Future: Conservative biofuel production forecast to 2017
PhilFly
· 1 year ago
Assuming oil has peaked and will decline at 5% per year starting in 2009, and demand remains flat (which implies a massive recession), we will have a 30% decrease in supply of oil by 2017. That's about 26 Mbbl/day by my calculations. The total biofuels production in this table in 2017 is about 2 Mbbl/day. How much extra will cellulose and algae biofuels add? Anyone know?
If there is 4.5% existing field decline then fuel supply increases until about 2017 to 2018.
The table only shows USA and Brazil. The rest of world adds another 50%.
Beyond biofuels there are natural gas liquids and coal to liquid.
The waste to fuel program from one company is looking to add 2.5 billion gallons per year by 2022.
For the USA, the biofuel fuel standard will be set at 35 billion gallons of renewable and alternative fuels in 2017. This will displace 15 percent of projected annual gasoline use in 2017. So the expectation would be about 14 billion gallons from cellulose and algae and waste biofuels.
The existing weak CAFE Plan Will Reduce Gasoline Consumption By Up To 8.5 Billion Gallons Per Year In 2017. So this can easily be doubled with a stronger CAFE plan for the next administration.
Plus the US is getting more oil from the Bakken and from Gulf of Mexico. 2017 is also the time when significant oil can come from the new coastal drilling.
All Comments
If there is 4.5% existing field decline then fuel supply increases until about 2017 to 2018.
The table only shows USA and Brazil. The rest of world adds another 50%.
Beyond biofuels there are natural gas liquids and coal to liquid.
The waste to fuel program from one company is looking to add 2.5 billion gallons per year by 2022.
For the USA, the biofuel fuel standard will be set at 35 billion gallons of renewable and alternative fuels in 2017. This will displace 15 percent of projected annual gasoline use in 2017. So the expectation would be about 14 billion gallons from cellulose and algae and waste biofuels.
The existing weak CAFE Plan Will Reduce Gasoline Consumption By Up To 8.5 Billion Gallons Per Year In 2017. So this can easily be doubled with a stronger CAFE plan for the next administration.
Oil megaprojects
Plus the US is getting more oil from the Bakken and from Gulf of Mexico. 2017 is also the time when significant oil can come from the new coastal drilling.