DISQUS

Next Big Future: Avogadro Scale Computing : digging into Gernshenfeld's Presentation from the Singularity Summit

  • 1indio1 · 1 year ago
    As a believer in near term singularity, and all the forthcoming technology associated with it, how then are you so conservative about future US GDP growth in relation to china. When you calculate when China supposedly surpasses the states in terms of GDP do you take in effect these technologies, or do you base them purely on established "non singularity-AGI-Nanotech" linear predictions?
  • nextbigfuture · 1 year ago
    Yes, the assumption of China passing the USA in economy is a non-singularity prediction. Also, a true singularity is usually predicted as post-2020. Ray Kurzweil prediction is for 2045. The Mundane singularity that I talk about involves a lot of correct choices and a lot of work. It would not effect GDP by 1% a year until 2015-2020 at the earliest. (Need plus $150 billion-200 billion each year for each percent). Hyperion Power Generations potential 4000 mass produced 27-30MW reactors from 2013-2022 could provide a 1% boost, around 2020 if they are 5 times bigger than their target. I see China passing just before significant tech starts to have big impact. Even if a breakthrough is developed next year it has to scale up and deploy. Production breakthroughs can help with deployment which is why molecular nanotech is potentially so big. It brings its own scaling with exponential manufacturing. Really good reel to reel manufacturing, factory mass produced nuclear, cement jet printing of buildings, molecular nanotech seem likely to impact later than 2015. Also, it seems like China would adopt these technologies in parallel with the USA. The USA will not be pushing ahead with a solo industrial revolution.
  • 1indio1 · 1 year ago
    Ive read interviews of Wil McCarthy where he talks about programmable matter, and the stunning potential to create artificial atoms. Could this theoretical process be used to say circumvent restrictions on feed-stock atom supply for MNT making it even more cost effective? Even more desirably, could it circumvent MNT altogether?
  • nextbigfuture · 1 year ago
    It could get close if the MIT work was implemented onto molecules. There was some molecular electronics that could be used and controlled. However, it would not be diamondoid nanotechnology unless the elements were shape changing diamond. It could likely be a form of wet nano.